It just happened that some pretty key events happened in a short amount of time, but I have no interest in covering the election in a horserace sense (I did not write about the Republican National Convention and have no plans on writing about the Democratic National Election barring some crazy development).
Since you read my newsletter, you know I cover politics, but I do not want it to be a main focus. There will be more election newsletters, but it is unlikely it will be to the frequency it has been in the past few weeks.
Like all political prognosticators, I have no quality data or insight. That said, my thesis is overturning Roe is an all-time own goal and will cause the GOP to lose heavily up and down the ballot. The Dems are pathetic and complicit to be sure, but their bad ideas are innocuous in comparison and I do think Kamala is a more than viable candidate. We shall see.
For sure, I'm surprised at how quickly the party is rallying around Kamala, but she made the most sense for no other reason than access to the campaign war chest that was earmarked for Biden. She can absolutely win this election, but the fact that she was destroyed in the 2020 primary gives me some reservation. Trump is a weak candidate and the GOP isn't even making any attempt to appeal to moderates, so while Trump has a hardcore base, his broader appeal is severely limited.
To the extent there are any "swing" voters left, I think Vance did nothing for Donny's ticket. Kamala has baggage and limitations, no doubt, but, for lack of any viable alternative, I firmly sit in the "blue no matter who" camp. They could've wheeled out Biden's corpse -- Weekend at Biden's-style -- and I would've voted for said corpse.
The only way I see the GOP moderating at this point is if the Democrats continue to beat them in both midterms and the presidential elections to the point where it forces them to change course. Unfortunately, they still have the Supreme Court locked up as a veto point, unless the Dems grow a spine and pack the courts.
But yeah, I've resigned myself to voting straight-ticket Dems purely because the GOP is full of psychopaths and clowns, and I want them as far away from power as humanly possible.
They do have viable options. Unfortunately, they're going to blow this historic opportunity, less than 24 hours after the opportunity arose. It's disappointing. However, a smiling woman seems to have excited Dem voters. I don't know how useful that ability is for being president of any country, I would have thought not at all, but that was two days ago. Go figure.
In Australia we do snap federal elections in six weeks, done and dusted. Even then, everyone is completely over it after four weeks, except for looking forward to the sausage sizzle on Saturday polling day. Oh, and government handover is as soon as the results are in, new PM and government starts straight away. The former PM, by tradition, is given a week to move out of the PM residence.
I don't know how Americans put up with primaries, election, then midterms, then you start again. Somewhere in a four year cycle, you get around 12 months without obsessive political speculation, and around 12 months when your pollies are focused solely on their job.
For most of our states and territories, there's a fixed four year term thus a fixed election day. Four to six week campaign, then immediate handover to whoever wins.
Our Saturday elections work out fine for 100 percent of voters, because none of us go to church on Sunday, and none of us have to travel a day by horse and carriage to get to the big city so as to vote on a Tuesday (being a normal working day in our part of the world), although I deduce these practices remain remarkably common in America, otherwise no rational country would hold a national election on a Tuesday.
But it gets better, pretty much anyone can vote early by mail, polling booths now open early over a couple of weeks prior to the official voting date, for the convenience of voters.
Apart from the odd recount (invariably uncontroversial) that take a day or so, no one, absolutely no one, ever claims fraud or other illegalities, even if a seat is won by a single vote.
No one is disenfranchised. Indeed, people can be fined for not registering to vote when they turn 18 years. We're all in it together. It's a democracy.
Voting is a private business, no one can register their party affiliation even if they wanted to, who they vote for is strictly between the individual and their HB pencil. If they do a donkey vote, or leave it blank, or invalid, or write obscenities on the ballot, no one will ever know.
I agree. The hardcore base is on board no matter what. But how much of the total electorate that truly is remains to be seen. Voters have been all over the place since the 2016 election.
Again, I don't have any insight beyond guesswork. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I look at the Kansas referendum as evidence this could backfire on the GOP.
The suburbs are the true battleground here. Their base is locked in--they wore diapers in Trump's honor for fuck's sake--but will suburban moderates (especially women) turn a blind eye to the further erosion of reproductive rights for... cheaper gas prices?
"Someone should check on Jeff Tiedrich."
Lol. Awesome.
Can you please stop with all of this shit?
Writing about the election?
Uh...yeah...
It just happened that some pretty key events happened in a short amount of time, but I have no interest in covering the election in a horserace sense (I did not write about the Republican National Convention and have no plans on writing about the Democratic National Election barring some crazy development).
Since you read my newsletter, you know I cover politics, but I do not want it to be a main focus. There will be more election newsletters, but it is unlikely it will be to the frequency it has been in the past few weeks.
Sharp, biting, and fabulous post as usual. I can't stop seeing a cheeto driving a Corvette.
Like all political prognosticators, I have no quality data or insight. That said, my thesis is overturning Roe is an all-time own goal and will cause the GOP to lose heavily up and down the ballot. The Dems are pathetic and complicit to be sure, but their bad ideas are innocuous in comparison and I do think Kamala is a more than viable candidate. We shall see.
For sure, I'm surprised at how quickly the party is rallying around Kamala, but she made the most sense for no other reason than access to the campaign war chest that was earmarked for Biden. She can absolutely win this election, but the fact that she was destroyed in the 2020 primary gives me some reservation. Trump is a weak candidate and the GOP isn't even making any attempt to appeal to moderates, so while Trump has a hardcore base, his broader appeal is severely limited.
To the extent there are any "swing" voters left, I think Vance did nothing for Donny's ticket. Kamala has baggage and limitations, no doubt, but, for lack of any viable alternative, I firmly sit in the "blue no matter who" camp. They could've wheeled out Biden's corpse -- Weekend at Biden's-style -- and I would've voted for said corpse.
What a time to be alive.
The only way I see the GOP moderating at this point is if the Democrats continue to beat them in both midterms and the presidential elections to the point where it forces them to change course. Unfortunately, they still have the Supreme Court locked up as a veto point, unless the Dems grow a spine and pack the courts.
But yeah, I've resigned myself to voting straight-ticket Dems purely because the GOP is full of psychopaths and clowns, and I want them as far away from power as humanly possible.
They do have viable options. Unfortunately, they're going to blow this historic opportunity, less than 24 hours after the opportunity arose. It's disappointing. However, a smiling woman seems to have excited Dem voters. I don't know how useful that ability is for being president of any country, I would have thought not at all, but that was two days ago. Go figure.
I'd just like there to be some semblance of a primary. Other countries have held full elections in 2-3 months, idk why America can't figure this out.
In Australia we do snap federal elections in six weeks, done and dusted. Even then, everyone is completely over it after four weeks, except for looking forward to the sausage sizzle on Saturday polling day. Oh, and government handover is as soon as the results are in, new PM and government starts straight away. The former PM, by tradition, is given a week to move out of the PM residence.
I don't know how Americans put up with primaries, election, then midterms, then you start again. Somewhere in a four year cycle, you get around 12 months without obsessive political speculation, and around 12 months when your pollies are focused solely on their job.
For most of our states and territories, there's a fixed four year term thus a fixed election day. Four to six week campaign, then immediate handover to whoever wins.
Our Saturday elections work out fine for 100 percent of voters, because none of us go to church on Sunday, and none of us have to travel a day by horse and carriage to get to the big city so as to vote on a Tuesday (being a normal working day in our part of the world), although I deduce these practices remain remarkably common in America, otherwise no rational country would hold a national election on a Tuesday.
But it gets better, pretty much anyone can vote early by mail, polling booths now open early over a couple of weeks prior to the official voting date, for the convenience of voters.
Apart from the odd recount (invariably uncontroversial) that take a day or so, no one, absolutely no one, ever claims fraud or other illegalities, even if a seat is won by a single vote.
No one is disenfranchised. Indeed, people can be fined for not registering to vote when they turn 18 years. We're all in it together. It's a democracy.
Voting is a private business, no one can register their party affiliation even if they wanted to, who they vote for is strictly between the individual and their HB pencil. If they do a donkey vote, or leave it blank, or invalid, or write obscenities on the ballot, no one will ever know.
Anyway, it works just fine for us.
That might carry weight if the country wasn't in such a damn mess but GOP has plenty of issues to keep their constituents loyal.
I agree. The hardcore base is on board no matter what. But how much of the total electorate that truly is remains to be seen. Voters have been all over the place since the 2016 election.
Again, I don't have any insight beyond guesswork. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I look at the Kansas referendum as evidence this could backfire on the GOP.
The suburbs are the true battleground here. Their base is locked in--they wore diapers in Trump's honor for fuck's sake--but will suburban moderates (especially women) turn a blind eye to the further erosion of reproductive rights for... cheaper gas prices?