These recession indicators are getting oddly specific...

Even the little things portend something insidious.

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With the Wall Street Journal reporting that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets and their CFO worrying about how they’ll pay for future computing and data construction contracts, it’s fair to wonder when this definitely-not-a-bubble will burst. Our glorified MLM economy has been propped up by an ouroboros of seven companies handing each other billions of dollars while the top 10% of income earners account for half of consumer spending. The S&P is shrugging off the Iran War and reaching record highs while Trump is the first U.S. president to fall for Israel’s regime change gambit that they’ve been trying since 1979, probably because they turned their four-part pitch into a literal four-slide PowerPoint. A fairly nuanced assessment of this absolutely rancid political moment would require a fair bit of macroeconomic data and some historical context, but more fittingly, a lot of honking.

I’ll read an article about Trump’s obsession with redecorating the White House mentioned alongside the slaughter of Iranian children, then deliberate whether this administration embodies an engrossing and ominous Lynchian evil or grotesque Verhoevenian incompetence. He’ll write dense paragraph-long schizo/shitposts that begin with “Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime,” and it begs the question of what a tough-on-crime Pope would look like. (Lord, let me forgive those who trespass against me—but not yet.) The Trump admin is fundamentally the American mindset and ideals ramped up to 1,000, which happens to be exactly as venal and stupid as it appears to be. It doesn’t help that J.D. Vance and Pete Hegseth are phenotypically demonic, and the head of the FBI seemingly took this position because he wanted to wear a cool windbreaker and fly private. There’s a feeling of untenability and instability around this, of how much longer the lines can keep going up when the economy is helmed by an administration that treats laws as meaningless and naked corruption as governance.

As a member of a generation that came of age during a supposedly once-in-a-generation global financial meltdown, millennials have come to understand recession indicators through broad cultural signifiers, like the return of indie sleaze or nostalgia for nu-metal and 2000s emo music. But if society died in 2020 and we’re now living in a man-made hell beyond our comprehension, our metrics need to adopt to this altered milieu, because my time lurking Reddits and comment sections have delivered some incredibly specific recession indicators that suggest a deep-rooted societal dysfunction that has only been accelerated and exacerbated from the pandemic. At its heart, This is a Newsletter! is about a 30-something millennial honking about culture and other things, and as such, it is in my best interest as its steward to return periodically to these founding principles by orienting my posts more around vibes than deep analysis. From time to time, you just gotta honk.

Here are my findings:

• Everyone is afraid to have children.

• Everyone is losing weight.

• Suburban wine moms are delivering DoorDash in $100,000 cars.

• Rich white boys are doing stand-up.

• Real estate agents are applying to law school.

• A man snatched a purse and was genuinely excited to find lip gloss and a debit card with $20 on it.

• Petty criminals are posting up at bus stops to sell stolen packs of sirloins instead of drugs.

• Scam texts have gone from “You won a FREE iPhone” to “Looking for a fully remote job that pays $20/hour?”

• 70-year-olds are on LinkedIn with “Open to Work” badges.

• There’s a concerning amount of posts in industry or local subreddits about mass layoffs, people looking for work, and how hard it is to find a job.

• In The Office, when Michael revealed that he was working two jobs, everyone was concerned. Now, working two jobs is normal.

• When someone says they still live with their parents, the reaction is now, “Wow—they’re so blessed.”

• Also living with your parents as a 30-year-old no longer prevents you from getting laid.

• There are more strippers in the club than customers.

• Movie theater parking lots are empty.

• Sugar daddies are in the DMs asking their ladies if they can lower their weekly allowance from $1,000 to $500.

• Fortune cookies now have gambling ads inside.

• Half of this year’s Super Bowl ads were either crypto or AI.

• People are torrenting again.

• I’ve never seen so many cars on the street with unrepaired damages.

• A lot of people are walking or riding a bicycle along the highway.

• Highway billboards near tourist destinations are wildly out-of-date: Some still up from Christmas, Halloween, or other events from a few months ago. Not even updates from generic law firms or fast food chains.

• Someone can work 48 hours a week and still get approved for welfare.

• A teacher can quit their jobs to work as a Starbucks barista because it offers better benefits.

• More coffee chain copycat and Depression-era recipes are popping up in my Instagram feeds.

• One pound of beef costs more than the federal minimum wage.

• A bag of Doritos costs more than $6.

• There are more Trader Joe’s canvas bags appearing at Aldis.

• People driving home with a sinking feeling that they’re bad with money, but they just bought groceries for the week.

• McDonald’s, Subway, Panda Express, Taco Bell, and Wendy’s cost as much as a local restaurant.

• People are going into payment plans to order fast food.

• “Come over for a drink” has replaced “Let’s go out for a drink.”

• Concerts aren’t selling out like they used to and major tours are getting cancelled.

• Property management apps are offering tenants the option of splitting their rent into two-week increments.

• Beer is cheaper than vegetables.

• Dollar Tree is selling items that cost over $5.

• Thrift stores now have Urban Outfitters prices.

• Facebook Marketplace is turning into an antique store.

• Wal-Mart is attracting a more affluent consumer base.

• People no longer say, “Keep the change.”

• Owning a dog is a luxury.

• There’s an uptick in celebrities working as influencers.

• Wall Street Journal called grocery store rotisserie chickens a “splurge” item.

• Mariah Carey is releasing new music and selling her NYC penthouse.

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